The Influence Of Economic Growth And Industrial Agglomeration On Carbon Dioxide Emission In China's Province

Since the rise of the European industrial revolution in the mid-eighteenth century,the excessive depletion of fossil fuels has led to an increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.From the 1990 s to the early twenty-first century,the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)studied and issued a number of global climate change assessment reports.The fourth assessment report,published in 2007,pointed out that global warming is a fact that cannot be disputable.As a big country in international carbon dioxide emissions,China has been paying much attention to the research on carbon dioxide emission reduction.It is very important to realize the high-efficient low carbon development.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the influencing factors of carbon emissions and its spatial correlation among China's provinces.In order to explore the impact of CO2 emissions in the provinces and districts,combined with the research on the impact of previous literature on CO2 emissions and the content of this paper,we selected variables such as economic growth,industrial agglomeration,foreign direct investment,and energy consumption as the main research variables.At the same time,choose the population density and the proportion of the secondary industry.The proportion of the employed population accounts for the control variables,and the data for these variables is mainly derived from the statistical yearbook.After relevant processing,the models are estimated.In this paper,we first use panel data to verify the relationships between carbon dioxide emissions and research variables among provinces.Based on that,we then use spatial econometric model to measure the Moran index and the Moran scatter plot LISA of per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita GDP,and to test spatial correlation results among provinces.It is found that there is strong spatial correlation for per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita GDP.Meanwhile,by using Spatial Dubin model(SDM),we find that the “inverted U curve” still exists from the spatial perspective,which conforms to the hypothesis of Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC).Foreign direct investment still has an inhibitory effect on carbon dioxide emissions.Through spatial econometric model,we get more visual analysis about current carbon dioxide leakage and carbon dioxide transfer.It shows that some provinces try to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions by transferring high energy-consumption industries to surrounding areas,which illustrates that current phenomenons of polluting industry transfers at province level and “hitchhiking” as well as other relevant conditions are very serious.The influence coefficient of foreign direct investment on carbon dioxide emissions is negative and significant,which indicates that the introduction of foreign direct investment has an inhibitory effect on carbon dioxide emissions.A the same time,this effect can also exist in surrounding provinces.The impact of population density on carbon dioxide emissions is also significant.In the direct effect,we find that the increase of population density can reduce carbon dioxide emissions directly.But both the indirect and total effects are positive.It means that although the increase of population density can reduce the per capita carbon dioxide emissions in local region,the per capita carbon dioxide emissions in the surrounding areas will be more.It is reasonable as the total population will finally stay in a stable state.