Research On Beijing Petroleum Pipeline Risk Assessment Of The Changping Section

Since the United States built the first crude pipeline, the pipeline transport of oil and natural gas has existed for 150 years. Known as the world’s fifth widely used form of transport, the technology carries more than 70% of the crude oil supplies and 99% of natural gas supplies in China. The pipeline transport of refined oil has also exceeded 35% of its national supplies a fter over a decade of development.As pipeline expansion continues, accidents have also become more frequent in recent years, causing serious environmental damages and huge economic losses. Pipeline transport has its advantages but also poses major safety concerns. How to effectively assess the likelihood of pipeline failures and possible consequences of such failures holds great significance to the effectiveness of risk controls in field work.Based on the author’s field experience of pipeline risk assessm ents, and his research on the current mainstream assessment methods, the study discovered that each method offers its own advantages and limitations, and optimization is essential in order to link the theories and the field work closely together and to keep the two in synchronization.The study addressed the purposes of pipeline risk management and various characteristics of the mainstream risk assessment techniques. In order to minimize the impact of human factors, the paper adopted fuzzy mathematics as the algorithm to determine the weight of each element.The paper then elaborated on the operational characteristics and major risks of oil and gas pipelines, and analyzed the statistical data on pipeline failures which occurred worldwide. The Fault Tree Anal ysis(FTA) was used to establish an improved system referred as ―Five Categories and Twelve Items‖ for classifying accidents. Further analyses on the causes of these accidents also drew a new framework for conducting risk assessments.With the assistance of computer modeling software MATLAB, the study subsequently redesigned a software for risk assessments, providing greater convenience to future field work. It took the Changping segment of Beijing’s refined oil pipeline as an example to demonstrate the met hod used in this paper, and verified the results with the most commonly used Kent Analysis Method, which then concluded that the method recommended here is applicable to real life situations. The study aims to benefit future risk managements of Beijing’s refined oil pipelines and to ensure the safe operation of the capital’s energy lifelines.