Risk Analysis And Evaluation Of The Cross-section Of The Minjiang River In The China-Myanmar Pipeline

Lancang River spanning pipeline bridge project is very important in China-Burma pipline project. It is the first pipline project that contains of ONE bridge, TWO tunnels and THREE piplines. Spanning pipeline is different with the ordinary buried pipeline in three ways, pipeline dangling, wind load, and interaction between pipline and bridge. Until now, there is no unified and effective risk assessment method towards spanning pipeline. The conventional risk assessment method is lack of specific evaluation. Therefore, risk assessment of Lancang River spanning pipeline bridge has a especially significance mainting the safe operation of the the whole project.Risk assessment includes the calculation of failure possibility and failure consequence analysis. In failure possibility part, the failure tree of the project was built, then we determined the calculation method of the failure probability of bottom events according to the failure tree analysis results, that is the theoretical calculation method and indicator transfer method. And taking the advantage of Bayesian network, complete the overall failure probability calculation, which is the failure probability of one single pipline. In the end, thinking of the effects of pipline accidents towards failure probability, the research of method of failure probability under parallel influence is made.In failure consequence analysis part, first of all, calculate the consequences of three piplines respectively. Then modify natural gas diffusion equation in view of the spanning pipe bridge location, so to get the maximum gas pipeline accident influence scope. Then parallel likely formed by superposition of three tubes accident is analyzed on the theory of domino effect, according to the theory of shock wave overpressure, demonstrates the three tube parallel accident probability, and the parallel pipeline accident consequence is calculated taking the example of Gas-Oil pipeline accident. Finally, set up suitable for the consequences of Lancang River spanning pipeline bridge project of comprehensive evaluation index and classification, combined with the pipeline failure probability, formation the risk matrix of Lancang River pipeline project.In the end, the Lancang River pipeline project risk evaluation model is established, and its risk assessment was made, the risk level as "Middle", is an acceptable risk.According to the evaluation results, corresponding risk control measures was put forward to reduce the project risk.