The Reliability Study Of Flight Delay Propagation Based On The Modified Delay Propagation Tree

The1990s, only a few airports were facing serious flight delays problems, as the economycontinues to develop, the rapid growth in aviation demand keeps close to the largest service capacityof civil aviation transportation system, and the whole air transport system congestion, the problem offlight delays is more and more serious. Flight delays around the world have caused seriousinconvenience to air travelers, impact on the airline passenger loyalty, reduce the airline’s economicbenefits, but also increase the operating costs of airlines.This thesis from the perspective of airports and airline affects flight delays and its implications.Flights will add additional delay time caused by the airport random factors (such as: weather, airtraffic control, maintenance, etc.) when it executes the flight schedule at the airport. In order to studythe relationship between random factors and delays, the thesis introduces the Bayesian network on thecorrelation probabilistic analysis of period, factors and delay time, It is concluded that the influencedegree and process on delay which is caused by random factors at airport.For the delay problem of airline operations, the thesis constructs the delay propagation tree (PT)with the factors of connection time (CT), slack time (ST) and delay time and so on, and analysis thedelay problem of flight schedule operation. Because of it lacks of the analysis the delay influence ofrandom factors at airports point, the thesis introduces Bayesian network (BN) to modify it andconstruct the model of modified delay propagation tree and related economic, reliability indicators.Due to modified delay propagation tree model and evaluation indicators analysis flight delay problemfrom the viewpoint of airports, airline and passengers. It can be concluded that the degree of delaypropagation, delay propagation time, resource integration, extent of airports delays, the rationality ofschedule slack time and so on, in order to determine flight, airports’ demand level to optimizationstrategy.Finally, the thesis come up with the delay optimization strategy (DOS) of flight cancellation,scheduling adjustment and resource scheduling to against flight delays problems, combiningoptimization strategy needs grades with the three strategies constructs models. This thesis furtherdistinguishes on the delay flights’ strategy optimization level based on the result of single strategyoptimization analysis, and proposes combinatorial optimization strategy (COS) with the target ofminimum delay cost and maximum reliability.