Research On The Influencing Factors Of Water Consumption Of Ten Thousand Yuan GDP In Jiangsu Province

Improving the comprehensive water use efficiency makes significant sense for realizing the sustainable development of economy in Jiangsu province, which is a chief water-consumer in China. In this work, comprehensive water use efficiency index system in Jiangsu province is built, aiming at ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption according to extensive literature reading, fully absorption of the opinions of experts, and combination of the present situation of Jiangsu province agriculture, industry and domestic water use..And then based on the understanding of mathematical model and using a variety of methods to identify influence factors of water use efficiency in Jiangsu province, this paper provides basic research for red line dynamic management efficiency, technical supports for strictest water resources management system, and theoretical background for the regulation of water resources in Jiangsu province.In the principle of macroscopic, this paper selects23indicators such as population, per capita water resources to build index system for impact factors, hailing from five aspects of influence factors of water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP in Jiangsu province including population, resource, economy, science and technology, management. Through the index analysis of the characteristics and the statistical rule of population, the factors—economy, science and technology, management can be classfied as the governmental regulatory factors.This article selects the multiple regression analysis to find responsed relationships between the factors and ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption. In the collection of data of indicators in Jiangsu province in1997—2012from four aspects of population, economy, technology and management, principal component analysis(PCA) is taken into account to process indicators in this work,.in consideration of the strong correlation between factors, so that the influence of collinearity can be eliminated. Then based on the multiple regression equation, the most important factors which affect the water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP in Jiangsu province are identified. Results show that the population, economy, science and technology has a higher influence on the management factors. In brief, urbanization rate (UZ), primary industry output value of GDP (PG), water-saving irrigation area (SI), water price has obvious effects (TF).Resource factors such as the annual temperature on average, on the other hand, does not belong to the government regulatory factors.For the analysis method, the regression coefficient can be interpreted as the function to observe the change intensity of independent variables caused by the change of dependent. However, out-of-control of resources factors indicates that regression model cannot be used to analyze the resource factors, nevertheless the impact of climate characteristics of agricultural irrigation water use efficiency can not be ignored.Through the analysis of climate data, there are small variations in resource factors in recent years in Jiangsu province, generally stay in stability.For this kind of situation, this paper puts forward the impulse response function in accordance with vector autoregressive model of resource factors, and the relationships between the variable targets and water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP in Jiangsu province are studied.In this paper, we analyze resource factors indicators from1997to2012, eliminate linear interference between indicators and mix them with water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP in Jiangsu province.resulting in the establishment of vector autoregressive model.Upon this, the impulse response function of resource factors is analyzed. Results show that the resource factors have higher influence on water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP in Jiangsu province, the effect of per capita water resources(WP) is obvious.