Research On Power Failure Risk Assessment Of Guangdong Province Under Ultra High Voltage Power Grids

With the development strategy of strong smart grid and the requirement ofenergy conservation and optimal allocation of resources, a large number ofcross-region AC and DC lines put into operation, the DC transmission line hasturned from traditional High Voltage DC transmission lines to Ultra High VoltageDC transmission line. Depending on its long-range, high-capacity, and low-losstransmission capacity, Ultra High Voltage DC line has been developed rapidly,greatly promote our country’s power grid security, economic, efficient and low-riskoperation. With the continuous development of Ultra High Voltage DC transmissiontechnology, the impact on the receiving grid is bound to become increasinglyprominent, this paper combined the project of Guangdong power dispatching controlcenter " the Study of Optimal Allocation of Dynamic Reactive Power CompensationEquipment of Guangdong Power Grid", with the PSD-BPA analysis software forGuangdong power grid outage risk assessment studies.In order to more scientifically analyze the system, it is necessary to study theoutage rate model and parameters of components, the state analysis and outage riskassessment methods and so on.Firstly，in this paper, the study object is Guangdong province under Ultra HighVoltage power grids, the establishment of a outage rate model of YunNan-GuangDong Ultra High DC transmission system; for the parameter elements, the parameterprediction model based on the induced ordered weighted averaging operator methodbe proposed; briefly described the risk assessment methods, and analyzed andcompared the various methods, and analyzed the risk index system to measure therisk of power failure, the system is able to accurately laid the foundation for riskassessment.Secondly, based on the operating characteristics under Ultra High Voltagepower grids, make further research on matrix analysis which is applicable to theanalysis of complex networks, and discuss the flow calculation method; For morecomprehensive analyzed the AC-DC hybrid system, using the AC power flow modelof the optimal load reductions, which can effectively taking into account all systemconstraints and corrective measures, and use examples to verify it.Thirdly, because the power network under Ultra High Voltage power grids is relatively complex, the evaluation process will be a lot of calculations, in order toimprove computational efficiency, on the basis of the existing risk assessmentmethods, the improved optimal sampling combined with the scattered samplingmethod was proposed, the evaluation method applied to the IEEE-RTS79assessmentsystem, while the method is applied to evaluate the actual Guangdong provinceunder Ultra High Voltage power grids to verify the correctness of the risk assessmentmethodology.