The Research On Risk Assessment Of The Transmission Grid Based On Components Of Short-term Outage Models

Now, with the constant expansion of the power grid interconnection, and its structure has become increasingly complex, however, its ability to bear the risk is relatively weakened, led to the transmission grid accidents occur frequently, the security risks have become increasingly prominent. Especially in recent years, the frequency of natural disasters to the transmission network has brought a great test. The root causes of the grid accident is caused by the failure of the power grid components outage, influenced by weather conditions greatly due to the long-term operation of the majority of the components in the transmission grid in the outdoor environment, and its operational status. Therefore, how to improve the security and reliability of the power grid has become an urgent problem to solve.Transmission network security risk assessment is to better understanding of its risks, as well as to find out the weakest link of the grid, and take targeted rectification initiatives so as to achieve the purpose of reducing the risk, maintaining grid security and stability run. At present, the relevant grid security evaluation or risk assessment theories and methods have been very rich, but practicality is not strong. Actual demand for grid short-term operational reliability prediction and the operating conditions of the equipment reliability objective impact, this article from the perspective of the risk of transmission networks for security analysis and research to propose condition-dependent components of short-term outage model. Transmission grid in the process of risk assessment, through the expected state of the system failure of AC and DC based analysis, based on the components of short-term outage model, using Monte Carlo simulation to explore the elements of component-based short-term outage model calculated the probability of failure of the system state probability. Based on IEEE-RTS24system for the reliability of the calculation and analysis, validate the correctness and effectiveness of using the components of short-term outage model.In addition, the paper detailed exposition of key risk indicators of the risk assessment on the grid and proposed to reduce the risk of the transmission grid. Throughout, the paper follows to improve the practical principles of analysis and research questions, reflects the theory with practice, the theoretical service in the actual exposition thinking, in order to help scheduling staff to make the rational decision-making in the short-term operational planning and online operation.