Freight Volume Forecasting Of Guangzhou Railway Corporation Base On Fuzzy Time Series Analysis

:Railway freight volume is the main basis of railway product, organization and operation. The reasonability and reliability of freight volume forecasting results directly affect the efficiency of railway transportation. It has important significance for determining the future development strategy of railway transportation, reasonably using resources of railway freight transportation and giving full play to the benefit of railway transport facilities.This thesis has written based on the case of Guangzhou railway corporation. Based on qualitative and quantitative analyzing the freight volume, it puts forward a freight volume forecasting method which is suitable to the actual production of Guangzhou railway corporation. Differ from traditional model, the forecasting results are not concrete values, but a range of possible outcome. Based on original method, an improvement is also made for more suitability to the actual situation of railway freight. This method can be adapted to forecasting the short-term complex amount change of railway freight volume which will provide data basis for the organization and operation of the railway.This thesis is divided into six parts. The first part introduces the background and significance, recent research condition of domestic and foreign, main content and research method. The second part introduces and evaluates the existing freight forecasting method, and decided to adopt both qualitative and quantitative analysis method to forecast the freight volume. The third part qualitative analyzes the current freight transportation situation of Guangzhou railway corporation in recent years, which includes overall tendency of freight volume, change tendency of freight category structure, freight transportation situation of three local provinces and freight situation of main stations. And then concludes the influence factors of freight volume. The fourth part introduces the fuzzy time series model and its improved method which is used to forecast the freight volume of Guangzhou railway corporation. There are two differences from the original model, which are improving the objective function and correcting season volatility. The fifth part uses the fuzzy time series and its improved model to forecast on case of the coal delivery volume Zhuzhou north station and total volume of Guangzhou railway corporation. And then verify the effectiveness of the original and improved model. The sixth part analyzes the problems of Guangzhou railway corporation faced by the current and puts forward the proposal for the future development of freight transportation. The seventh part draws a conclusion and shows the future research.