Study On Railway Freight Volume Forecasting

Prediction of the cargo volume of Railway transportation is the main basis for determining the scale of water transport infrastructures. A reasonable and accurate prediction result of cargo volume has the most significant effect on determining the investment and benefit of future railway transportation engineering projects, making developing strategy for future railway transportation and giving full play to benefit of waterway transport facilities.Based on the amount of reference literatures on cargo volume forecast, The paper expatiates on principle, method and steps of forecasting railway volume; it studies and discusses the application of theory of grey system ,multi linear regression and ARMA model to cargo volume forecast, and learns the improved grey-markon clain and ARMA model based on moving smoothing. Combinationg forecasting model renders us to make better use of each single forecasting model and thes improves forecasting performance greatly, which overcomes the shortcomings of each single forecasting model. With better understanding of the railway freight situation, the model probides better decision-making basis for railway transportation enterprises.The mail body of this paper is composed of five parts. First part summarize the research background; stress the importance and the purpose of the thesis and explain what done in the thesis; second part reviews the existing research work in this field, and analyzes the deficiency of study on railway freight wolume forecasting; third part reports the forecasting mdels .they are moving averaging, moving smoothing,ARMA model, grey model, liear regression, forth part analyzes the results of each foresting model; fifth part is the paper conclution and reviews the whole thesis and gives some suggestions on further reserarches.