Study On Railway Freight Volume Forecasting Based On Sharing Rate Model And Grey Theory

In recent years,with the continuous increase of railway investment in China,the scale of the road network has been gradually expanded and the coverage has been significantly improved.However,Compared with the eastern region,the Midwest railway network layout in our country is still not perfect,the capacity of cross-regional transport corridor has been constrained and the road network coverage still needs to be further expanded.It shows that China's central and western regions of the railway industry has great potential for development.The railway freight volume is an important index to influence the project's decision-making and planning,assessing the construction scale of the project and measuring the economic benefit of the project.The accuracy of the forecast is directly related to the future development of the railway industry.As an important indicator of the impact of the project decision-making and planning,assessing the construction scale of the project and measuring the economic benefit of the project,the accuracy of the railway freight volume prediction is directly related to the future development of the railway industry.Because the traditional railway freight volume forecasting method needs a large amount of basic data to support,but in some areas of central and Western China,the lack of statistical data leads to a significant increase in the uncertainty of freight volume forecast.Therefore,it is necessary to explore a method to quickly and accurately forecast the freight volume of railway in this area,which can not be based on the historical freight volume data.Firstly,this paper elaborates the research background,the research purpose and the significance of the railway freight volume forecast,analyzes the present research situation of the railway freight volume forecast at home and abroad,and narrates the research content and main technical route.Then,this paper introduces the theory of freight volume forecast from two aspects of qualitative and quantitative,and gives a general idea for freight volume forecast of Lanzhou to Zhongchuan Railway.Secondly,through market research to determine the owner on main influencing factors when choosing a mode of transport of goods,this paper establishes the evaluation index system of main influencing factors based on the principles of selecting evaluation indexes and the actual situation of the case.Thirdly,this paper applies the combination weighing method to obtain weights of indexes,and uses Influ-Logit model to obtain the share rate of Lanzhou to Zhongchuan railway freight transport.At the same time,the traffic flow is converted into the corresponding freight volume based on the investigation of the affected area of the project.Finally,this paper introduces three kinds of grey forecast models to calculate the historical data of railway freight volume.By comparing the relative error of the models,a model with smaller error is selected to predict the future annual freight volume.The results show that the freight volume forecasting model constructed in this paper can forecast more quickly and accurately the freight volume of the area in the absence of freight statistics,and provide reliable evaluation parameters for the planning and benefit evaluation of railway projects.