Research On The Medium And Long Term Load Forecasting Of Distirbution Network In Leting County

As one of the important work of power system, load forecasting levels forecastingis one of the measures of modernization of power system management. The accuracy ofmedium and long-term load forecasting, which is the basis of electric power systemplanning, is directly related to the rationality of planning and construction, the securityand stabilit of operation of power network, and thus make a significant impact on thesocial life, productive labor, economic efficiency and social efficiency of an enterpriseand other aspects of the people. The main research works and achievements of this paperinclude:Firstly, this paper introduces the research background, significance and the presentresearch conditions about the load forecasting, and investigates the economic andelectric power development of LeTing region. Some load forecasting model andcommon method for load forecasting are analyzed and discussed in this thesis by thestudy of literature and comprehensive analysis. Combined with the economic andelectric power development of LeTing region, the original data required for the mediumand long-term load forecasting are collected and organized. According to my theoreticallearning and LeTing economic and power development strategic plan, the loadforecasting method adopts the per capita household electricity consumption forecastmode, the single-eonsume forecast mode, and the elasticity coefficient of power.Secondly, this paper analyzes and studies the load characteristics, structure,distribution, growth trend and influencing factors in LeTing region.The SPSS11.5andthe microsoft EXCEL2003software are employed to deal with the research data andcarry out analysis.And on the basis of the data statistical analysis results, the loadcharacteristic, tructure, distribution, growth trend, temporal characteristics, influencingfactors, etc. are disccussed and the conclusions are given.Thirdly, the middle or long term electric load forecasting method are proposed forthe prediction of the electric load in LeTing region.According to LeTing economic andpower development strategic plan and1990-2012load data of1990-2012, the middle orlong term electric load forecasting, which is based on the per capita householdelectricity consumption forecast mode, the single-eonsume forecast mode, and theelasticity coefficient of power, are studied. This paper also analyzes and disccusses the results, presenting the cientific prediction method adapted to LeTing region.