Research On Load Forecasting Of Distribution Network And Its Application

Under the new situation of the electricity market reform, especially in the strong smartgrid concept, the power distribution system has begun to receive more and more attention.Load forecasting，which is the foundation of safe operation and planning for powersystem，is of great significance. However, the level of communication and schedulingautomation of power departments at the county level is very low, especially lack ofprofessional engineer and technical support systems. This paper analyzes and studies theproblem of distribution network mid-long term load forecasting. In the modeling theory,timing trend extrapolation model was determined. Then introduce fuzzy analytic hierarchyprocess to improve the fitting accuracy; In the practical application, taking into account ofthe business processes in power company, a practical set of county-level load forecastingsystem is developed for aided decision making.Firstly, this paper reviews research the status of distribution network and long-termload forecasting and completely summarizes related theory and applied research on mid-long term load forecasting. On the basis of introduction about many forecasting modelsand theories, analyzes the advantages and applications scope of several typical forecastingmethods.Secondly, according to the characteristics and its uncertainty and diversity of county-level load, the chapter expounds the specific content and basic forecast process, anddetermines the timing trend extrapolation model which is given details of algorithmprocess.Thirdly, taking into account of many factors that affect mid-long term load forecasting,in order to improve the prediction accuracy, this paper introduces the fuzzy analytichierarchy process to unify qualitative and quantitative factors and establishes a hierarchyfor predicting target. Then, a specific numerical example model is given to verify thefeasibility. Finally, according to the characteristics of the system needs a med-long term loadforecasting system is designed by Java SWT/JFace, the Hibernate open source framework.Combined with system flow chart and software interface diagrams, functional modules andthe structure of the system design are introduced. The system has been delivered to acounty electric power department in Luoyang city and has a good running condition.