Evaluation Method And Applied Research On Timetable Stability Of The Passenger Dedicated Line

Since the21st century, the economic has developed rapidly and demands for transportation have grown fast. Railway transportation industry emerges the problem of insufficient transport capacity, the flow of goods and people travel is restricted. Vigorously building passenger dedicated line, will greatly improve the railway transport capacity, and lay the foundation for improving the quality of transport. The stability of the passenger dedicated line timetable is an important factor in affecting the smooth running of the passenger train and satisfaction of passenger’s travel.This paper analyzes the development of Chinese railway through collecting relevant data in development of railway in a ten years, and points out the necessity and usefulness of study for passenger dedicated line timetable stability. The abroad research about timetable stability is advanced than the country both in analysis methods and theoretical simulation research. Few study about timetable stability especially passenger dedicated line timetable stability in our country. To solve these problems, this paper studies in the following aspects.Firstly, the paper puts forward the concept of passenger dedicated line timetable stability and the specific content based on a detailed analysis of the difference between passenger dedicated line timetable and existing train line timetable. Proposed the factors in passenger dedicated line timetable stability in summary and analyzed them individually.Then, analyze passenger dedicated line timetable stability from the timetable’s characteristics of structure. The max-plus method is widely used to study the periodic system stability in abroad, this paper use this method to analyzing passenger dedicated line timetable stability in our country. Introduce the basic form, application status, prospects and other aspects of max-plus methods, build passenger dedicated line timetable max-plus linear systems and express by a polynomial matrix. The paper analyzes the passenger dedicated line timetable max-plus linear systems using the algebraic method, and studies realization, system stability, robustness and passenger service level of the passenger dedicated line timetable; proposes quantitative indicators to evaluating its stability. The method is illustrated by a specific example.Finally, the paper studies the passenger dedicated line timetable stability based on the passenger transfer reliability. By analyzing passenger travel behavior and summarizing the factors that affect passenger travel, propose the concept of transfer reliability and build a successful connection probability function. Propose the extended successful connection probability for different passengers’transfer reliability thresholds and design algorithms to calculate it. Design transfer network based on the timetable, define the cost function of each arc in the transfer network and combine it with congestion cost function to proposing transfer route cost function. Build the multi-class user equilibrium model based on the transfer reliability, propose evaluation indexes of passenger dedicated line timetable service level, and solve the model with an algorithm which combines a k shortest path algorithm and the method of successive averages. Describe the passenger dedicated line timetable stability based on passenger transfer reliability detailed by an example.