Analysis Of Passenger Traffic Forecast Methods Of Passenger Dedicated Line Based On Modal Demand Model

With the implementation of our national railway network planning, the railway undertaking has been developing rapidly in recent years. Many passenger dedicated line projects started being planned and built in succession. For traffic volume forecast had huge impact on the entire project's design, construction, operation, organization of train operation and economic benefit evaluation etc., as a new mode of transport corridor, the passenger dedicated line was now still lack of specific theory and method to predict it. Modal Demand Model is a model to predict the new traffic way's forecast of traffic volume which was a research result made by Transportation Investigation Bureau in Japan in 1970s. This paper made an exploration of MD model on the base of the current domestic and foreign scholars' published research results, improved its theory as well as method further and built a set of process on MD method.Firstly, the current railway passenger traffic forecast methods were summarized and analyzed in this paper such as the method of time series, the model of stochastic time. In consideration of the theory of regressed analysis, econometric model and the four-stage method which was widely used at home and abroad, this paper discussed the newest theory such as neural networks, logit models, grey theory and support vector machine, and analyzed the scope of application of various methods and advantages and disadvantages.Secondly, it discussed the development tendency and influencing factors of railway passenger traffic volume. This paper researched on the line structure characteristics, locomotive vehicle characteristics, economic technology characteristics and passenger flow formation mechanism as well as its structure characteristics of passenger dedicated line according to the changes of current transportation structure and analyzed the relationship and functional position of passenger dedicated line and other transportation modes in the whole transportation corridor in accordance with its transportation service properties, thus laying theoretical foundation of passenger dedicated lines'transport volume forecast.Then it found the difficulties and disadvantages of MD model through the research on its fundamental principles and improved as well as perfected it. It founded the solving method of OD potential passenger transport demand by analyzing the relationship of passenger volume and potential passenger transport demand; it came up with the generalized travel time and generalized trip cost conception in MD model, taking various factors such as trip time consuming, trip cost, trip comfort, safety accident probability, transport punctuality and so on into calculation as trip sacrificial amount; it introduced resource time value determined method with GDP as basis; it analyzed the relationship of trend traffic volume, induce increase traffic volume and transfer traffic volume in MD model, thus improving the theory and method of MD model further and establishing a complete set of MD model prediction procedure. By the comparative analysis of the prediction results of MD model which was not improved and logit model, this paper proved the reliability and rationality of improved MD model to the passenger flow forecast of passenger dedicated line.Finally, it explained several key points and limitation about MD model research in this paper, and carried on a brief discussion on further work direction.