Model Research Of Transmission Grid Reliability Evaluation Considering Uncertainty

As an important part of the power system, transmission network has its uniquefeatures and the most suitable analysis method and model for its reliabilityevaluation.many of the researches on transmission network reliability assessment inthe past use the average value of failure rate instead of considering the impact of theparameter uncertainties,change of weather and change of failure rate on reliabilityevaluation and its indexes,and will inevitably lead to one-sided evaluation results.Therefore, this paper studies on the impact of above factors on reliability evaluationwith a actual transmission network.Research includes following several aspects: onthe basis of full research and understanding of the meaning,principle,model and themethod of power system reliability assessment, studying on dealing with uncertaindata, using blind number theory combining Breakpoint method and judgment matrixmethod to process the uncertainty of history data, establishing models oftransmission reliability assessment based on blind number interval and calculatingblind number indicators of reliability assessment; with history datas of weatherconditions which affect transmission reliability assessment, studying on the impactof different season and different weather conditions on transmission reliabilityassessment, and verifying the feasibility and practicality of the research with annumerical example; general assessment method uses the average value of fault rate,but actually, fault rate changes with time,this paper considers effects of time andoverhaul on fault rate and uses ladder model containing update process simulatingfault rate curve,then improves sampling process of sequential Monte Carlo andapplies it to reliability assessment with a standard case,which proves the rationalityof the model.