The Research On Hourly Loss Of Load Expectation And Expected Energy Not Served Of Tidal Power

With the development of modernization and the increase of energy consumption, thecontradiction between the growing demand for energy and fossil energy decrease emerged.Therefore, tidal energy, which is renewable, abundant as well as pollution free will becomemore important in the future. But because of the feature of tides, the energy is of periodicity,intermittence and fluctuation. And the difference from human activities varies with solarday, tide changes vary with the lunar day, which causes the tidal power and load changes donot match with each other. With the large-scale development and utilization of marineenergy, in order to evaluate the contribution of tidal power objectively, it is necessary tostudy the reliability index of tidal power generation system.This paper computes two reliability indicators: Hourly loss of load expectation and theExpected energy not served to measure the adequacy of tidal power system, introduce the"Expected energy over served " to measure the matched-degree about tidal time-varyingpower and time-varying loads, and finally assess the reliability of it.The paper delves into the feature of tidal power, and establishes a tidal prediction andtidal power system reliability analysis model to study the reliability of different factors onthe impact of tidal power after reading of relevant literature and studying tidal power on thebasis of operating characteristics. The main contents are listed below：(1) Analyze the causes of tidal and the theoretical basis of harmonic analysis, establishthe tidal harmonic analysis calculation model based on the least square method, predict anumber of tidal waters data observed in the test site and get the yearly tidal waters curve.(2) By studying the principles of tidal power and operating characteristics, establish atidal power plant reservoir level computational model based on a single database operationmode bidirectional tidal power plant operating parameters, and obtain the tidal powerstation water level hydrograph. On this basis, establish a working head tidal power timingmodel.(3) Study the feature of tidal power condition, establish the unit output model, unitoutage model, time-varying load model, and use the feature of tidal power which is suitablefor sequential Monte Carlo simulation method to calculate tidal power EENS and HLOLE.Calculate and analysis the reliability of conventional unit of the same capacity, one-wayand single reservoir tidal power plant mode, conventional mode of co-generation units, number of units increases, and tidal changes under different circumstances, and bothcompare the reliability and analysis corresponding elements.Numerous studies have shown that the reliability of tidal power is pretty poor, and it haslow matching rate between generation and load, meanwhile its generating capacity is notsufficient and its utilization rate is relatively low. However, we can take some measuressuch as conventional mode of co-generation units to improve its reliability.