Study On The Expansion And Simulation Of Urban Land In Chongqing Liangjiang New Area

In order to realize the scientific planning of land use,improve the efficiency of urban land use and allocate the industrial distribution rationally,exploring the change mechanism of urban land use and predicting the future development situation of urban land use is an effective way.Therefore,this paper takes Chongqing Liangjiang New Area as an example,Based on the Landsat image interpretation data of Chongqing Liangjiang New Area in 2010,2013 and 2016,urban administrative centers at all levels,all kinds of roads,river systems and topography,as well as the relevant social and economic statistics,using of mathematical statistics,GIS spatial analysis technology and other methods comprehensively,to explore the changes of land use in the study area in the past 7 years from the perspective of time and space,and to discusses the driving mechanism of land use change in the study area by using partial least squares regression analysis from the perspective of quantitative and qualitative analysis,from the perspective of district level and block level,and then,according to the mechanism affecting the land use evolution of the research area,reasonable scenarioes are designed,the CA-Markov model is used to simulate the land use development in 2025 under different development scenarios of the research area.The main research results are as follows:(1)Major land use types changed significantly.The main land use types in Chongqing Liangjiang New Area are construction land,cultivated land and forest land.Since the establishment of Chongqing Liangjiang New Area from 2010,especially from 2013,it has entered the period of comprehensive development.The construction land area has increased significantly with an average annual increase of 4149hm~2,and the cultivated land and woodland have decreased significantly.However,it has always been within the allowed scope and become the main source of the increase of construction land.The expansion direction of construction land in the research area is generally to the north.Konggang group,Yuelai group,Yuzui group,Longxing group and Caijia group are the areas with significant expansion.The proportion of water area,grassland and unused land in the study area is small,and the change degree is low.(2)A variety of factors influence the change of land use type in the study area.Considering to the special geographical location of the study area--mountain city,this paper takes topographic factors as an important aspect of the analysis of influencing factors.On the one hand,the paper explores the correlation degree between elevation,slope,undulation,distance from administrative center,distance from all kinds of roads,and distance from each water system,etc.and land expansion from the level of land parcel.On the other hand,Exploring the influence of population,policy,economic level,industrial structure,people's living standard,urbanization,education,science and technology on land expansion at the district level.The results show that roads,slopes,policies,economic development status and population level all have different effects on land use change,which is an important thrust affecting the land use evolution in the study area.(3)To simulate the future land use types in the study area,the paper taking 2013 as the base year,an appropriate data set of land transfer suitability was established to simulate the land use situation in the study area in 2016.According to the Kappa coefficient test,the accuracy reached 80.62%.Based on the above content and existing experience,three schemes,namely"under the condition of natural growth","under the condition of urban planning"and"under the condition of ecological protection",are designed to simulate the land use situation of the study area in 2025 under different conditions,Results found in the"ecological protection situation"in the study area of construction land expansion of reasonable restrictions,social and environmental coordinated development will be more ideal,the simulation results provide a scientific reference for the regional land for future development,land for open source and throttling,land space layout,reasonable planning area to provide strong support for industry development,boost the development of Chongqing.