Dynamic Emergency Evacuation Planning And Simulation For The Regional Disaster

Over the years, various types of disasters are the major unpredictable factors that influence human society. How to take the affected population to safe place is the most important issue after the disaster. In recent years, academics are more concerned about disasters which caused large-scale evacuation in big cities and other densely populated areas. How to deal with large-scale evacuation planning with complexity and many uncertainties is more and more important and urgent.In order to improve the traditional evacuation planning emphasis on the optimization of evacuation instructions which including determining the optimal evacuation routes and optimize batch departure time, but it could not deal with the uncertainties of evacuation process. This paper analys the emergency evacuation uncertainty, buliding the dynamic evacuation instruction update mechanism and dynamic evacuation planning framework. This paper also analys the influence of traffic information to evacuees route choice behavior under emergency situation and point out the limitations of traditional Logit models and how to establish the behavioral model use fuzzy theory, and finally applied it to an actual road network. Details are as follows:Firstly, on the basis of analysis of the human behavior uncertainties and uncertainty of the road network, introduced several human evacuation decision behavior modes, and design a dynamic instructions update mechanism based on real time in response to the shelter resource uncertainty and uncertainty of road capacity. Integrated traffic demand model, traffic supply model, evacuation instructions dynamic updating mechanism, dynamic traffic assignment model and traffic management model, establish a dynamic response evacuation planning framework to cope with uncertainties in the evacuation process and the psychological and behavioral characteristics of human in emergency situation.Secondly, we use an example to explana the inapplicability of traditional logit model to describe route choice behavior consider the the influence of traffic information in the state,of emergency. From behavioral and psychological perspective, we analyze the human risk perception behavior and reform the logit model. This paper also discusses how to calculate the link cost weight values use the theory of fuzzy inference, and finally obtain a fuzzy inference system to take traffic information, road distance as input and link cost weight value as the output.Finally, make Tianhe District, Guangzhou City, the road network as an actual case, and use the EVAQ software based Matlab as simulation platform, the number of arrivals within the specified time as the performance indicators to discuss the impact of traffic information levels, information obey level and evacuation instruction cycle on evacuation efficiency. Simulation results show that the dynamic emergency evacuation planning framework can deal with the uncertainty in the evacuation process, and a lower level of traffic information, a higher the frequency of information dissemination and instruction obey level could improve the evacuation efficiency most favorable.