Study On Ship Emergency Evacuation Order With Cellular Automata

In recent years, with the state promoting the marine economy development strategy vigorously, maritime transport demand continues to rise, port navigation circumstance become more and more busy as well. At the same time, the global environment is becoming worse, like earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons and other extreme natural disasters, which will take tremendous impact on the normal operation of the port. What’s more, regional conflicts, terrorist attacks and port dangerous goods leakage incidents increased, also made the port security facing serious challenges. At present, the contingency plans of port to respond to these events are most remain in the stage of plan guidance, lacking of technical support and specific solutions.Thus, these disadvantages leads to the port manager still need to judge the situation and make decisions on their own experience in times of emergency. Based on this situation, this paper study on the port,in the analysis of the impact of total evacuation time of traffic characteristics and port flow in non-conventional under different evacuation order scheme selection, combined with the advanced theory of water traffic characteristics and traffic areas, the ship emergency evacuation evolution CA model was established. This model not only demonstrate the characteristics of the ship’s emergency evacuation traffic flow and provide a theoretical basis for the ship evacuation traffic organization, but also provide the decision-making basis for the maritime administration to develop port emergency plan. The research including:1)Feasibility study. According to the research of background and status at home and abroad,the feasibility analysis by using cellular automata method for ship emergency evacuation order was finished.2)Ship emergency evacuation traffic organization analysis. With the collection of the ship and port information, the ship evacuation traffic organization and characteristics of ship emergency work were done. Picked out of the ship evacuation efficiency and associated safety factors which provide ideas for the later modeling.3)Determine the cellular model parameters. According to the emergency evacuation traffic flow analysis, combined with the characteristics of maritime traffic system, draw on relevant research results of road traffic, build ship behavior parameters which can reflect the cellular model of ship emergency evacuation of the actual traffic situation, such as the cell size, area,update rules.4)The establishment of port emergency evacuation model based on CA. In the framework of the theory of cellular automata method, put forward a kind of ship based on Wolfram-184 model CA model of emergency evacuation, study the evacuation traffic flow order characteristics, in order to study the evacuation order of influence on the evacuation process. Finally, taking Xiamen port as an example to verify the rationality of the model.Based on the cellular automaton evacuation order of the ship evacuation process was simulated by using the computer simulation technology, according to the characteristics of the evolution process of traffic flow, the feedback model, the relative order were obtained by iterative calculation of ship emergency evacuation. The evacuation of the work make contribution to ensure safety and speed and to provide a scientific basis for decision makers to develop relevant contingency plans as well.