Operation Risk Assessment Of Supporting Engineering Of Baoding’s South To North Water Transfers

South-to-north water transfer project is the longest water transfer of the world, and the largest water diversion project of the world, the number of supporting engineering buildings is also the most in the world. The supporting engineering buildings of south-north water diversion project relative to other long distance water conveyance project is a relatively complex system, Its scope is very wide, its distance is very long, its investment is very large, whether it is for urban towns along the project, or in terms of the national strategy on water resources are very important. Therefore, to ensure the safe operation of supporting engineering buildings of south-north water diversion projects is essential. To achieve effective management of the supporting engineering buildings of south-north water diversion project, to carry out the South supporting projects run the risk analysis and evaluation is very important.This paper described in detail the research status of operation of the project risks, as well as supporting basic overview of Baoding south-to-north water transfer project; it analyzed the mechanism of recognition and Baoding supporting projects run the risk of water diversion from the relevant parameters for each class supporting the project, we analyzed the reasons for the failure of Baoding south-to-north water transfer supporting projects, from which to identify and extract risk factors; It fully analyzed the basic situation of south-to-north water transfer supporting projects of Hebei, to established the risk evaluation index system and evaluation criteria of Baoding, it had laid a good foundation for the further evaluation of Baoding south-to-north water transfer supporting projects risk assessment; It summarized the current evaluation of the many ways to run the risk of engineering, such as fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process(AHP), limit conditions, method, experience index method, projection pursuit method and comprehensive evaluation matter-element model, etc. The form a complete set of project operation risk assessment system belonged to the complicated system problem, its fuzziness in the evaluation should be considered.This paper was based on the detailed description of the fuzzy recognition theory to evaluate the risk of Baoding south-to-north water transfer supporting projects. This theory was based on variable fuzzy sets theory, it used the nonlinear model to evaluate the run risk, in order to improve the accuracy and reliability of the risk assessment. The results showed that the grade of Baoding south-to-north water transfer supporting projects risk was between 2 and 3,it was biased towards two and belongs to the low risk level. It verified the fuzzy recognition theory feasibility and applicability in the risk evaluation of Baoding south-to-north water transfer supporting projects, and it proposed the prevent and control measures of Baoding south-to-north water transfer supporting projects according to the results. Meanwhile, the evaluation processed and the evaluation results could not only provide a reference for security management in Hebei province, but also to provide reference and research significance for other provinces’ risk evaluation of the supporting engineering buildings of south-north water diversion project.