Operational Risk Management Of Crossing Structures In The Middle Route Of The South-to-North Water Diversion Project Based On Fuzzy-fmea

China’s water resources are very scarce,accounting for 6% of the world’s freshwater reserves,needing to feed almost 20% of the global population.The distribution of fresh water resources is uneven in space and time.The lack of water resources affects the long-term stability of the society to a certain extent,and also restricts the sustainable development of China’s economy to a great extent.The South-to-North Water Diversion Project provides an important water resource guarantee for the economic and social development of the water-scarce areas in the north.At the same time,various uncertainties in the project operation are also in front of the managers,so it is necessary to study how to reduce and control the risks.There are many crossing structures such as inverted siphon,aqueduct and culvert in the middle route project,which play a very important role in the safe operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and directly affect the benefit of the water diversion project.The safety and stability of the water conveyance system will be seriously affected if the crossing structures appears subsidence,cracking and collapse.Therefore,the risk management of the crossing structures in the middle route is an essential part of the risk management of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.According to the train of thought of "proposing problems,analyzing problems and solving problems",this paper aims to manage the risk of the intersecting buildings on the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project during the operation period,and studies the risk of the crossing structures in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project from two aspects: theoretical analysis and model construction.Through literature analysis and expert interview,the factors affecting the safe operation of the risk factors of the crossing structures in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project are preliminarily determined,and the risk evaluation model of the buildings in the middle route is constructed,which provides a reference for the risk management of the crossing structures in the middle route.Based on this,the main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Identification of risk factors for the intersecting crossing structures in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project during operation period.In this paper,based on the literature study,expert interview and other methods to identify risk factors affecting the safe operation of crossing structures in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,through the hall three-dimensional method according to the time dimension from different operation stages,from environment,project structure and operation management,combined with FMEA method to identify the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion cross structures run-time risk factors.(2)Improved FMEA risk assessment model for middle route crossing structures based on VIKOR and comprehensive weight.Firstly,the language evaluation information of Occurrence,Severity and Difficulty of detection was collected by experts,and the subjective weight was obtained by fuzzy AHP.The linguistic evaluation information of experts on each risk factor was collected,and the objective weight was obtained by using the maximum deviation method.The comprehensive weight of risk factors is obtained by integrating subjective weight and objective weight.The improved FMEA model with VIKOR method was used to carry out the final risk ranking.Finally,a case study of Sanlizhuang ditch drainage aqueduct in Huixian section in the middle route is carried out.(3)Risk management of crossing structures on the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project during operation period.This paper puts forward the risk classification based on the risk evaluation results and puts forward the risk response measures.Also,the risk control measures are put forward from three aspects of environment,engineering structure and operation management.