The Method Of Power Load Density Prediction Using Language Information Decision-making Theory

With the continuous development of urbanization in China, the requirement of urban distribution network is more and more high. How to build intelligent, reliable power supply systems is becoming one of the focuses of electric power system planning. As the basis of urban distribution network planning field, the prediction of urban residential load density plays a very important role in the smart grid construction. It is the basis and premise of power distribution network developmentNow, there are a large number of literatures to introduce the prediction method of load density, each method has its own advantages and characteristics. But no matter which way, it depends on the basis of that is the need to collect a large number of sample data. Because our country now is in the stage of development, in many parts the information collection system is not perfect, so in the practice, collecting complete sample data to meet the needs of prediction is almost impossible. In order to solve this problem, based on the city’s own characteristics and the results of the original data collecting, the method of power load density prediction by using language information decision-making has been picked.The integrity of the sample size will determine the final prediction precision, so in the condition of collecting complete sample data to meet the needs of prediction is almost impossible, by using expert’s knowledge and experience to evaluate the various indicators of the urban in language can effectively make up for the data lacked problem. To get the more credible predict results, explores the problem of how to build the system of urban residential load density evaluation, how to eliminate the combination of experts’ language information, how to integrate expert’s language information and how to coordinate the conflict of expert evaluation. And from the three aspects of urban district the integrated score, expert language information compared to typical combined forecast model, adopt the comparative conflict degree to coordinate the information of expert to discuss the method of language information decision-making in power load density prediction.It is taking several cities district as examples to test the effect of the application of language information decision theory in the urban area load density prediction under different prediction methods. The results show that as the method of adopting the comparative conflict degree to coordinate the information of expert can make experts agree on more unified evaluation results, therefore using the method to predict the urban residential load density its accuracy is the best. As a kind of effective means of subsidiary in the conditions of actual data collection difficult, the method has a strong practical significance. Its predicted results can provide important auxiliary basis for urban distribution network planning.