Design And Implementation Of The Prediction System For The Proposed Highway Traffic Flow

Traffic flow forecasting is one of the key indicators for highway investment builders to analyze project future earnings. The author uses the Chongqing Hu Yu highway toll station business data to build traffic flow database. Through scientific and reasonable data mining algorithm, the author designs a prediction system for highway traffic flow based on data mining technology, so as to provide an important data to judge the investment and operation management of the Chongqing Fu Feng Shi highway project.The design and implementation of the prediction system for the proposed highway traffic flow is introduced in this thesis, firstly, the research background and research status at home and abroad are introduced; then the author sketches the core theory related to the proposed highway traffic flow forecasting system-data mining technology and also introduces a common intelligent traffic software. The thesis provides an illustration of user’s requirements, based on that, the scheme of system’s database is discussed. On the basis of user’s requirements, the detailed design and implementation process of the prediction system for the proposed highway traffic flow is given; at the same time, based on the data technology, the implementation of data mining are discussed with specific cases. Finally, system running diagram is presented, then the comparative analysis among system’s running result,4-step method’s forecasting result, the actual traffic flow of the Fu Feng Shi project is concluded in the thesis. The main success of the thesis is summarized as tow aspects: Firstly, the author develops the proposed highway traffic flow prediction system based on B/S three layers architecture, and the system includes data management, data mining and system maintenance. Secondly, using the data mining technology, the author analyzes the toll station traffic flow information, constructs the decision tree and time series algorithm. Through data analysis, the system can base on the toll station traffic flow information to predict the traffic flow of highway that to be built.The prediction system for the proposed highway traffic flow which discussed in this thesis can provide the basis for reasonable project designing, traffic flow forecasting, constructing and management cost assessing. Also it can provide corresponding technical support to auxiliary management and strategic decision making for helping the domestic highway builders and managers to improve the investment income eventually.