Research On Prediction And Disposal Model For Adverse Events Of Production Facilities Design Innovation

Aiming at productivity, humanization, green ecological environmental protection andsustainable development, service to engineering design, optimization and innovation of alltypes of production facilities for three industries is one of the core themes of the currentdesign activities for industrial projects. The essence of design innovation for productionfacilities is the engineering design innovation. If adverse events caused by innovation and thepossible loss occurred, that is, the risk of engineering design innovation is borne by designdepartment and design staff, the result is that much-needed, no standard engineeringinnovation not listed in the contract was abandoned.Obviously, it is the risk of adverse events that discourage engineering innovation orhinder the design innovation of production facility. Based on the specific form of theengineering innovation, that is, our research subject is the whole life-cycle design (LCD)activities, the thesis mainly studies the problem of prediction and disposition of adverseevents affecting LCD from the perspective of rational allocation of innovation risk betweenthe innovation subject, so design innovation of production facilities is promoted.Firstly, the risks factors that affect the whole life of the project design are identified and alist of risk factors is gotten by means of the risk management theory, the Delphi method, andthe analysis of work structure and causality diagram.Secondly, a direct risk factor affecting the whole life of the design project can be drawnand the prediction problem of adverse events affecting LCD can be solved by means of thequestionnaire，two-dimensional comprehensive evaluation method and cluster analysis.Finally, on the basis of the established theoretical model of risk allocation influencingfactors and the risk allocation framework of engineering full lifetime, the direct risk factorsaffecting the whole life of the design project is identified, a theoretical model of the riskallocation influencing factors is established, and then the four disposal principles ofinnovative adverse events based on risk allocation framework(RAF) are proposed, the fourdisposal principles include the principle of willingness, capacity, source and loss.The nine direct risk factors affecting LCD were configured between the employer andthe designer by the application of the principles, risk allocation matrix of the nine direct riskfactors can be gotten and verified through questionnaires, and disposal model based on riskallocation matrix (RDM) is proposed finally, the accuracy of theoretical analysis is verified bycomparison to data obtained by questionnaires, so the disposal problem of adverse eventsaffecting LCD can be solved.The results of this research identifies innovation risk factors and someone who takesresponsibility for risk, which contributes to someone who takes responsibility for riskidentifying the focus of investment in resources, thus design innovation of production facilities represented by the whole life of the project design can be carried out very well.