Research On Passenger Flow Distribution Of Urban Rail Transit Based On Travel Time Reliability

Under the circumstances that traffic problems are increasingly serious in cities both home and abroad, urban rail transit has become an important approach to address urban traffic problems for its high capacity, energy conservation, environment protection, high safety etc. Urban rail transit has already become a significant part of urban public transportation system. The one-ticket transfer mode is most commonly adopted by urban rail transit in China, which makes it convenient for passengers, but it brings difficulties to planning, design, operation and management of urban rail transit since the one-ticket transfer mode makes it impossible to determine passengers’ travel path in the urban rail traffic system. It is extremely necessary to establish scientific theories and methods to accurately calculate the allocation and distribution of passenger flow in the urban rail transit. Passengers’ travel time in urban rail transit is fluctuation and passengers tend to avoid the excessive fluctuation path when choosing the path, but it has not been taken seriously in the study of passenger flow distribution in urban rail transit. Ignoring the impact of travel time reliability on passengers’ path selection would lead to an overestimation of the amount of transfer and impact on the operation and management of urban rail transit.Under the background of the networked operation and management of urban rail transit, the paper considers the passenger mentality of avoiding the excessive fluctuation path and studies the passenger flow distribution model based on the reliability of travel time and the solution algorithm to path allocation probability, design and develops a simulation system of the passenger flow distribution of urban rail transit based on result of the travel time reliability, and discusses the simulation application of this model in the situation of normal and abnormal network conditions in urban rail transit operation.First of all, real passenger flow data in Beijing Subway are used to analyze fluctuant features of the travel time and the constitute of travel time, the paper sets up a network topology model of urban rail transit, and puts forward the passenger flow distribution methodology system based on reliability of travel time to be applied in urban rail transit, gains a prediction model through mathematical calculation that is able to calculate the probability of path allocation using the Monte-Carlo simulation method, and verifies the model with the Beijing subway passenger flow data.The paper uses programming to realize solution to the probability of path allocation under the condition that the travel time is reliable, designs and develops a simulation and demonstration system of passenger flow distribution based on the reliability of travel time, realizes a transformation of the passenger flow from static allocation to dynamic evolution; with the subway passenger flow data in Beijing as the case, the paper probes into the simulation handling method under the abnormal conditions of urban rail transit, studies the passenger flow allocation and distribution law in the situation of normal and abnormal network conditions in urban rail transit operation.