Passenger Route Choice Based On Portfolio Theory In The Urban Rail Transit Network

With metropolis gradually developed urban rail transit network, there will be more pathways for passengers’ travel choice. Meanwhile, time, visual indicators of traveling quality, is increasingly taken into account to select path in rail transit. It is not only required to reduce travel time, and also has certain requirements in travel time volatility. Therefore, according to the perspective of travel time and its reliability, it has practical significance to study the path of travel policies and improve the traveling quality.In this paper, based on portfolio theory, we find how to develop passenger rail transportation path policy to improve the traveling quality, after weighting combination of travel time and travel time reliability. Firstly, according to the time reliability, we study the rail transit travel time reliability, propose appropriate indicators and evaluation methods, and have an illustrative example. Secondly, based on portfolio theory, we propose urban rail passenger assignment model, taking into account the travel time and travel time reliability to determine the route selection strategy for travelers under certain conditions. Finally, combined with existing passenger data and based on Beijing urban rail transport network, we analysis the responsible indicators, and have the proportion of passenger traffic between different OD to verify the corresponding method in the research process above.