Statistical Analysis And Probability Models Of Yard Load For Container Ports

In resent years, the reliability method have become one important direction of structural design.Whether the design can reflect the actual situation is related to whether the variable statistical parameters are accurate in the process of reliability calculation using reliability design method for wharf structure. Statistical analysis of wharf heaped loads have been made, however there is little statistics on container load for container terminal yard. In this paper, statistical analysis is conducted on the container load for both representative north and south container terminal and load models of container yard are established.So that we not only understand the current situation of container loads, but also provide support for future container terminal reliability design. Main conclusions of this research are as follows:(1) The basic concepts of the probability theory, mathematical statistics, stochastic processes and random field are presented, as well as commonly used random variables, stochastic process models and estimation method of parameters in engineering load analysis.(2) Statistical analysis and investigation are conducted on the container load for Dalian Container Terminal. Local and overall load models of container yard are established and the statistical parameters are determined based on the non-stationary stochastic process theory. The results show that both the probability distribution functions of local and overall maximum load for the design reference period of50years follow extreme-value type I distribution. The mean and coefficients of variation are89146.56kg and0.2767for local maximum load in design reference period and1820.31kg/m2and0.1190for overall maximum load.(3) Statistical analysis and investigation are conducted on the container load for the First Phase Project of Guangzhou Nan Sha Container Terminal. Local and overall load models of container yard are established and the statistical parameters are determined based on the non-stationary stochastic process theory. The results show that both the probability distribution functions of local and overall maximum load for the design reference period of50years follow extreme-value type I distribution. The mean and coefficients of variation are72963.48kg and0.1465for local maximum load in design reference period and1772.83kg/m2and0.1435for overall maximum load.(4) Statistical analysis and investigation are conducted on the container load for the Second Phase Project of Guangzhou Nan Sha Container Terminal. Local and overall load models of container yard are established and the statistical parameters are determined based on the non-stationary stochastic process theory. The results show that both the probability distribution functions of local and overall maximum load for the design reference period of50years follow extreme-value type I distribution. The mean and coefficients of variation are61237.58kg and 0.1496for local maximum load in design reference period and1906.49kg/m andO.2149for overall maximum load.