The Short Time Failure Risk Of Distribution Systems Under Adverse Weather

With the development of society and economy, all sectors of society have an increasing and urgent demand for high quality power. As a final part of transmission electrical power to users, the operation state of distribution systems have a direct influence on the reliability of supply electrical power. The types of distribution system equipment have big difference. Also, the equipment of distribution systems is widely distributed. A substantial proportion of the distribution network equipment directly exposed to the outdoor environment. So the adverse weather conditions can directly affect the operating performance and security status of distribution equipment. Therefore, it is worthwhile to analyze the impact of adverse weather to distribution systems.This paper analyzes the outage risk of distribution systems under adverse weather. Combined with the characteristic of adverse weather and the effect of adverse weather to equipment of distribution system, this paper presents the outage model for equipment under adverse weather. Combined with the topology characteristic of distribution system, this paper proposes a load based Markov state space model. This paper also proposed a Fokker-Planck based distribution system short time outage calculation method. The short time outage risk of distribution system is got by using the numerical solution. Finally, combined with the maintenance program of distribution system, this paper discusses the impact of maintenance program to the outage risk of distribution system under adverse weather condition.