Risk Assessment Of Traction Power Supply System Considering Adverse Weather Effects

In these years, electrification railway has been forced to discontinue several times because of adverse weather. Railway transport has been affected a lot. To evaluate how the railway transport is affected by adverse weather and how to reduce the loss have been hot issues. Within this context, risk evaluation of traction power supply system of electrification railway must be carried out. This paper proposes the indices and method of risk evaluation of traction power supply system under adverse weather from a power-supply aspect.First, the risk for electrification railway under adverse weather is analyzed from two levels of bulk power supply system and catenary system. Risk evaluation indices and method have been proposed based on a built meteorologic model to adverse weather. For risk evaluation of bulk power supply system, Monte Carlo method is applied to generate specific weather situation and load level based operational condition for bulk power supply; inadequate power supply in traction substation is defined as risk event; AC power flow models are used to identify risk; local load shedding scheme is adopted to evaluate risk. For risk evaluation of catenary, windage yaw and ice on catenary are defined as risk events; risk value is described by using the severity function.Then, AHP based comprehensive evaluation hierarchy system is established to evaluate power supply risk of a whole electrification railway. By Delphi survey and other materials each element in all levels is decided; weight of relative element is calculated by proper mathematical method. Expert mark is processed by Grey Method. Quantified value of risk evaluation for the whole electrification railway is obtained, which provides supports for decisions made by the railway department.In this paper, a program used for bulk power supply risk evaluation and hierarchy analysis is developed by VC++6.0. IEEE's RTBS system is used as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed weather model and evaluation method.