Study On Quyang Medium-long Term Power Load Forecasting

Because the electric power can not be a large-scale economic storage,because the electric energy production, transmission, distribution and consumption is actually carried out at the same time, the power must be related to the time required for all load power and transmission loss inelectric energy and phase equilibrium that all power plant production ofany moment. The changes and characteristics of the future load, there must be a forecast evaluation prior process, in order to advance arrangements for electricity production, ensure the normal power supply.Load forecasting is based on the historical data of load and its relatedfactors influence and impact analysis, load variation, causes the effect of load variation into account, using the predictive model and method, tofuture economic situation, social development, climate conditions, and gas prediction as factors based on the results, the future load of a numericalestimation process time. Loa. Load forecasting of power demand in the future include the amount of(power), the future electricity(energy)prediction and forecasting load curve. The main work is to predict the future load time and space distribution.Quyang county power supply company of Hebei province power companyas a wholly owned subsidiary, power supply area of 758.8 square km,population 621300 people power. During the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" in Quyang County, the annual total electricity growth rate 10.18%. Average annual growth rate of 7.94%, the maximum load. The first industrial use of electricity in 2012 accounted for the total power of the 2.25%; the second industry electricity accounted for the total power of the 59.57%; the third industry electricity accounted for the total power of the 7.88%; residential electricity consumption accounted for the total power of the 30.29%.During the period of 2011-2012, rural residents per capita living consumption respectively 10.34% and 4.46% growth, per capitaconsumption growth rate is respectively 10.33% and 4.28% growth.Therefore, in order to meet the demand of economic development afteron electricity demand increases, must be on the distribution network of the existing transformation and upgrading. To predict the long-term power load in Quyang area, can provide important reference for thedevelopment of future power system planning and construction, to create a good foundation for the economic development of Quyang area.This paper firstly introduces the background and significance of the topic, and then describes the method of load forecasting theory and load forecasting. And in the analysis of Quyang area with power and distribution network status, select the gray theory to the Quyang area of mid long term power load forecasting. The forecast planning result can provide predictive information and basis for the Quyang county power supply power grid and power supply as well as the company.