| In order to balance the relationship between demand in households, economic production water and environmental ecological water, it is estabilshed a coupling system "resources—popupation—economy—ecological environment" based on the status of water resource in Changsha. It is related to System dynamics approach and select the tertiary industry ratio, the first, second and third industry annual growth rate, water consumption per acre, water consumption per ten thousand yuan of value-added by industry, urbanization rate, water resources exploitation and utilization, repeat utilization rate of industrial water, sewage discharge coefficient, rate of sewage treatment, rate of recycing water, rate of population increase, industrial wastewater discharge coefficientand water consumption per person.In addition, selecting the GDP, population, living water demand, total economic water demand, supply and demand pressures as the main evaluation index. The syetem model simulates the four patterns, the status continuity pattern, the new economical development pattern, the water-saving and pollution control pattern and coordination of the development pattern.The result shows that:1)The simulation results of the coordination of the development pattern is relatively good, and has the strongest capacity for sustainable development, therefore it is selected as the optimal solution.2)The supply and demand pressures of the pattern which the first, second, third industy separately maintain the10%,12%,12%annual growthand the water-saving and pollution control conditions consistent to the status continuity pattern will reach more than twice the water-saving and pollution control pattern.3)The economic production of water has much greater impact for water supply and demand than the pressure of living water and ecological environment water;4) It is a feasible way that we reduce per capita water consumption appropriately to balance the number of living water due to population growth. |
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