Research On Probabilistic Production Simulation For Wind Power Integrated Power System

Wind power has become the main new energy power generation in China. However, unlike traditional power generation sources, wind generation outputs are highly variable, intermittent and only controllable to a limited extent. These features have important influence to the reliability of power system operation. On the other hand, restricted by peak shaving capability, the power system is faced a big challenge of wind power consumption. Sometimes the operators have to curtail the wind power. Therefore, it is great important to effectively assess the impact of large-scale wind power integration to the reliability of power system operation and make a reasonable power generation schedule. Power system probabilistic production simulation with wind farm is the effective tool to solve this problem. However, as the randomness of power system is further dominant, the traditional algorithms have been difficult to meet the new requirements of modern power system. Under this background, in this thesis, probabilistic production simulation for wind power integrated power systems is been studied systematically.In the aspect of wind farm output model, the quantitative analysis was carried out on the wind farm output characteristics from the aspects of randomness, volatility, seasonal characteristics and daily variation characteristics. And based on the analysis, the multiple-period multiple-state wind power model is proposed, which suitable for medium and long term power system simulation. The model contains plenty of modes, and each mode is divided plenty sub-periods. So in addition to express the randomness and volatility of the wind power, the model can express seasonal change characteristics and daily variation characteristics as well.Then, the generating capacity of power system is regarded as a multiple-state system. Based on this, universal generating function based probabilistic production simulation (UGFbPPS) is proposed in this thesis. The case studies were carried out on IEEE-RTS79 test system, and results verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.At last, based on the UGFbPPS, a new method for assessment of wind power consumption is proposed. As for the medium and long term operation simulation, the operating condition of generators cannot be completely deterministic, the total minimum output is determined by loading rate and forced outage rate of generators. The method will provides the technical supports for determining the appropriate scale of wind power.