Analysis And Forecast Of Electric Load Characteristics In Anqing Area

The regional power grid load prediction is based on the known operation of the power system and the influence factors such as local politics,economy,climate and social activities.Through the analysis of historical data,the inherent relation between regional load change and influence factors is found.Load forecasting is a basic work of power network planning and operation,it is the basis of power network operation control and calculation and analysis,and it is the key to ensure the safe and stable operation of power network,reasonably compile the power network operation mode and balance supply and demand of power network.In this paper,the traditional method and the new technology of partial load forecasting are summarized,and the similarities and differences between them are analyzed.In this paper,the traditional forecasting method and the new technology of partial load forecasting are summarized,and their similarities and differences and their respective applications are analyzed in detail.In the light of the actual situation in the Yen Khanh region,the power structure and load characteristics of the Yen Khanh region are analyzed according to the uncertainty affecting the medium and long-term load forecasting.The forecast results were compared with the actual electric load and electricity in Yen Khanh during the 12 th Five-Year Plan period.The results show that,compared with the traditional forecasting method,the gray forecasting technique is more suitable for the medium-and long-term power forecasting in the Yen Khanh region.Based on the results of the above research,the grey prediction technology was used to predict the power load and power volume during the "13-5" period in Yen Khanh.At the same time,the prediction method proposed in this paper is also applicable to other regional power networks with the same electricity structure and similar load characteristics.