Forecast And Analysis Of The Demand For The Lease Of City Public Bicycle’s Rental Station

With the economy developing, the number of motor vehicles is growing and the problems of traffic congestion, energy issues, and environmental issues become increasingly prominent. Bicycle as a green transport has been paid attention again. Public bicycle is an innovative bicycle traffic patterns, which has been used in many cites. Establish public bike system and encourage more travelers using the non-motorized travel way, is an effective way to improve the city traffic operation efficiency as well as reduce environment pollution.Firstly, the system of public bicycles are analyzed in this paper, including history of public bicycle development, conditions of public bicycle using and travel mode, the function of public bicycles in the urban traffic system.Secondly,Taking Xi’an city as an example, the characteristics and environment of traveling are analyzed, and according to public bicycle service surrounding land property(residential land, commercial land, administrative office land) on the site classification. In use of the every kind of site part of the site of public bicycles were statistical data, and in-depth analysis of the data, calculated the site each time through coefficient, the peak hour by coefficient. Then from the use of time, individual attributes, travel characteristics of the three aspects of the use of public bicycle in Xi’an summary analysisFinally, according to the front of Xi’an public bicycle using the characteristic analysis, put forward the influence public bicycle by demand factors, and according to the hierarchical analysis method of influencing factors were screened and analyzed, monthly income travel distance, travel time, attributes the factors of lending also demand is relatively large. Then the random utility theory establish public bicycle demand forecasting model, and using the model of Xi’an city residence, commercial, administrative office of public bicycle borrow also demand forecast. At the same time, the turnover rate of public bicycle and the turnover rate of parking piles were estimated by the number of bicycle and parking piles of public bicycle rental points.. According to the existing data, some ideas about the location and layout of the public bicycle are put forward, and the existing layout ideas are analyzed and the rationality of the leased point is also analyzed.