Research Of Fuzzy Fault Tree And Fuzzy Logic System For Safety Assessment In Ship Bridge Collision

With the rapidly development of Chinese economy and transportation, a large number of bridges which across the river, across the sea, across the navigable waters have completed and put into using. They adversely affected to water transportation with varying degrees, some of them even be faced with grave risk of ship collision. Study of effectively avoiding the occurrence about the bridge of the ship collision accident has become an important part of prevention and control of marine accidents.Fault tree analysis, analytic hierarchy process and experts estimation method are used in the risk identification of ship bridge collision system. The probabilities of basic events in the fault tree can not be got from statistics and testings. To solve this issue, this study originally used the fuzzy fault tree method which combining fuzzy set theory and expert evaluation method. This study originally built the fault tree of ship bridge collision and analyzed the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the fault tree. Also with using the analysis of three main influence events in the fault tree as an example, it makes a summary discussion of the safety assessment based on fuzzy fault tree analysis. This study makes a risk assessment of ship bridge collision system which based on fuzzy logic system. With the risk identification of ship bridge collision, this paper established the risk management system. And it also built the risk assessment model of ship bridge collision by fuzzy inference engine. After comfirming each input, membership function and fuzzy rule base, the fuzzy logic system of ship bridge collision could make risk assessment. At last this study evaluate a risk assessment of two bridges which on the route from Shanghai to Wuhan. This example gives a simple overview of using of this method.The safety study of ship bridge collision could effectively give us the dangerous levels predict of single ship sailing across the bridge. And also it could accurately help the ship maneuvering person to make asafety assessment. In conclusion, this study has great value in both theory and practice.