Analysis And Research On Saturation Load Based On The Stage Of Economic Development

From the perspective of power grid development in the developed countries, the scale of power grid will eventually tend to be saturated, along with social and economic development and power infrastructure construction tend to stability. In some economically developed areas in China, growth rate of economic and power demand begins to slow down, so it is necessary to study on saturation load. Saturation load is the key indicator to determine the ultimate scale of a regional power grid, through analyzing and forecasting a region’s saturation load, the ultimate scale of a regional power grid can be confirmed, the cost of power grid renovation can be effectively reduced with its long-term power grid planning target guiding the recent power grid construction, which is conducive to regional economy, regional planning and coordinated development of power grid.This thesis mainly studies the power grid development in developed countries, analyzes the grid development stage division method, and summarizes the social and economic characteristics of saturation stage. At first, this thesis summarizes the research status of load forecasting and saturation load, expounds the basic content and research thoughts. Secondly, this thesis introduces the basic concept of saturated load, expands the connotation of saturation load, and sums up the main difficulties of the research on saturation load. Thirdly, load forecasting methods associated with saturation load are introduced, including growth curve model, econometric model, system dynamics model, per capita electricity consumption method, load density method, etc. Besides, this thesis introduces the ideas of scenario analysis method, which is the expansion and innovation of existing saturation load forecasting method, and has guiding significance and practical value. Then, this thesis focuses on different power grid development division methods, summarizes the decision criteria of the development stage and the characteristics of each stage. In addition, social economic develop indicators that have great relation with electricity consumption are screened out based on grey relationship analysis. Finally, the procedure of saturation load forecasting based on scenario analysis is introduced in detail, and the practicability and validity of the proposed stage division method and forecasting method in this thesis is verified through an actual example.