Research On Saturation Load Forecasting Of Xiamen Power Grid

The urban saturation load refers to the load scale of a city when the demand of power is saturated.The final scale of the urban power grid can be determined by the prediction of the saturated load level of the urban power grid,which is conducive to promoting the construction of urban power grid to its economic and social development.,And coordinated with the regional planning for the protection of power grid security,health,sustainable development has a very important significance.In this paper,a series of research work on the saturated load forecasting of urban power grid is carried out.The main contents and achievements are as follows:This paper describes the concept of urban saturated load,analyzes the socio-economic characteristics of saturated load stage and the main factors influencing the forecast of saturated load.The research status and methods of current saturated load forecasting are studied.The method of per capita integrated electricity consumption,Method,space load distribution method and so on several more widely used in the current saturated load forecasting method.However,there are some limitations in these methods,that is,they require more survey parameters or require higher accuracy of parameters,which often make the load forecast take a great deal of time and effort to carry on the parameter data Collection and measurement and other preparatory work.It is found that the development of electricity demand is closely related to the level of economic development.When the urban economy reaches its saturation state,the scale of its power load is often saturated.Therefore,based on the saturation economic analysis,this paper discusses the relationship between the two most important indicators of the city's saturated load level-GDP and population level and social electricity consumption.Based on the growth curve model,A new method of saturated load forecasting is proposed,which is based on the saturated load forecasting model of econometric model.In this paper,the Xiamen power grid as the research object,introduced the Xiamen region and the status quo of the grid,collected the basic data of Xiamen power planning and load forecasting of the indicators,respectively,using the per capita integrated electricity consumption method,load density method and spatial load distribution The paper forecasts the size of the saturation load of Xiamen Power Grid,and compares the historical development of Taiwan and Singapore,which is similar to Xiamen's economic situation,and analyzes and proves the forecast results.On this basis,the forecast method based on the growth curve model and the econometric model proposed in this paper is used to forecast and the error of the prediction results is analyzed.The results show that the method has good prediction results and less reliance on the number of survey parameters and the accuracy of data,and it can effectively reduce the workload under the premise of ensuring the accuracy of prediction,and has certain application value.