Security Analysis Of Air Route Network Based On Conflict Risk

The rapid development of China’s economy is accompanied by the rapid development of civil aviation. In recent years, the airspace operation environment is becoming more and more complex and the risk of conflict between aircraft have gradually intensified with the flight flow greatly increased. Whether the aircraft can be operated safely in the airspace is what the aviation system concerns. The effective evaluation of the risk of conflict of air route network is an effective means to ensure that the airspace operation safe and unblocked.In order to carry out the airspace safety risk management more effectively, in this paper, the theoretical analysis and methods study of the en route aircraft conflict risk has been carried on according to the actual situation. Firstly, this paper explains the research background and significance, summarized the domestic and foreign present research situation and research results and combing the research contents. Secondly, this paper introduces the related concepts of air traffic management and air route network and aircraft conflict risk, then analyses several typical conflict risk assessment model. Besides, according to some basic concepts such as aircraft protection area and the critical region, an airspace conflict risk assessment model based on probability calculating is established. And the relevant standards of civil aircraft incidents standards are added to the model. Through calculation and test, the model can calculate the number of signs of accident effectively in the airspace. Finally, part of air routes in one sector of Shanghai airspace are used as example to simulate, and the theoretical results and simulation results are under comparative analysis. The analysis result shows that theoretical results and simulation results match basically and the feasibility of the model is also verified.