Risk Assessment On Urban Rail Transit Operation

The traffic adjustment policies give rise to a phenomenon that increasing safety risks emerge from the operation procedure. It’s more and more difficult to launch the management of operation safety,along with expanding scale of network. Assessing the safety condition of urban rail transport operation from the perspective of overall, and studying comprehensive evaluation model, provide a theoretical basis for the decision of the management department.The research work of this thesis is mainly the following aspects:①In view of system theory, from “external factors and internal factors”, an analysis of urban rail transit system in two ways, summarize the risk factors affecting the safety of operation of urban rail transit.②Unifies our country city track traffic operation security feature,combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method, based on the expert consultation,the urban rail transit safety risk assessment index system is established.The first layer includes two indicators, which are the internal factor, external factor. The second layer includes 5 indicators, which are Staff technical level, facilities, safety management,passenger quality, as well as extreme weather, and the third layer includes 22 indicators.③Based on the theory and methods, which are trapezoid fuzzy number theory,least squares, game theory,as well as entropy method,the model of urban rail transportation security comprehensive risk assessment is set up. The model can be for the entire object of the evaluation, a single target, a security assessment to determine the level of risk status, in order to develop an effective control measures for reference.④Take the Chongqing track transportation 1 line as the example, the relevant data is obtained by the Investigation together with expert estimation method, Urban rail transit performance is evaluated by the established evaluation model. Through the analysis of the evaluation results. The level of Chongqing track transportation risk rank is “3 levels”, the risk is in the low level, in which staff technical level and the safety control risk rank is highest “4 level”, is in the low risk level, the passenger quality, the equipment facility condition and the extreme weather is in the low risk level.⑤According to the analysis results of the railway traffic safety risk in Chongqing,the relevant suggestions and countermeasures are put forward, which have some reference functions for improving the railway traffic safety management in Chongqing.