Process Planning And Risk Analysis Of Product Development Based On Grey Design Structure Matrix

The product development process is a systems engineering, and is related to the problems of large amounts of data, varieties of tasks and interactive network. Design structure matrix(DSM) can describe the complex information exchange relationship reasonably and do the process modeling and planning analysis for the research project. But the planning analysis of classical DSM needs the accurate information to support. While in actual development process, part of task information can be measured accurately by the designer, but there also exists part of information whose evaluation is uncertain, such as rework impact degree and information reliance degree whose measurement and evaluation has a certain degree of subjectivity. Grey system is an effective tool that can solve the uncertain information problem in real life. It can extract valuable information through analyzing and handling information, and then it can describe operating rules of system. Therefore, this paper combines the design structure matrix and grey system, expands the research according to the DSM’s description and process planning model under the circumstance of uncertain information, and builds the model of grey design structure matrix.Firstly, this thesis establishes the gray design structure matrix model, analyses its concept and category matrixes. Then, it designs the planning framework of development process under grey DSM and builds the feedback evaluation function.Then, it designs the optimization model algorithm of grey DSM and does the comparative analysis from two angles of decomposition-decoupling planning and relevance tree planning which not only enrich the optimization model of DSM with uncertain information, but also provide a scientific and effective method for using DSM effectively under uncertain circumstance.Once again, this thesis designs the simulation methods and processes of grey DSM from angles of risk assessment matrix, parameters and simulation clock according to the Monte-Carlo simulation technology. And it analyses the schedule, cost and integrated risk of product development process through risk probability and risk impact metric function.Lastly, this thesis applies the process planning and risk analysis and control model of grey design structure matrix to the development process of a certain type of military aircraft. We use the grey design structure matrix to do the process optimization and controlling, and use the computer simulation to do the risk analysis.The method this paper proposes expands the DSM theoretical framework with uncertain information environment; and designing the Monte-Carlo simulation risk analysis process of product development process with uncertain information DSM provides the auxiliary support in application for use and analysis of theoretical models.