Research On Estimation Of Construction Safety Risks For Prefabricated Housing Based On System Dynamics

With the rapid development of China’s construction industry In recent years,the safety situation of construction industry has become more severe,and the number of casualties in its process,ranking at number two,is just slightly less than that in mining industry which has the highest death rate.At the same time,Prefabrication has put forward new requirements for safety management. Hence,it is of great significance to ensure the efficient control of construction safety risks in the process of prefabrication.This paper put forward An innovative assessment method of construction safety risks for Prefabrication,and the number of casualties in its process,ranking at number two,is just slightly less than that in mining industry which has the highest death rate.domestic and foreign prefabricated housing construction specifications. Originally using the System Dynamics Theory,the new method took the construction process of prefabricated housing as the search subjects. From the perspectives perspective of enterprises,it selected factors influencing construction safety of prefabricated housing and assessed construction safety risks in prefabricated housing by utilizing the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis.The construction safety risks has been classified into the following five parts as man-made risks,lifting operations risks; installing risks of PC components; technological and environmental risks. The article established the feedback model of construction safety risks using the SD simulating software Vensim,and it also defined quantitative relationships among all the risking factors in the feedback model by G1 method. According to the feedback model,the risk flow model was built up and it then Carried out.Assessment of five subsystems by simulating univariate variations,and reduced the risk values of all sub-factors of only one sub-system by 0.05 every time for simulation,and the results showed that human risk has greatest impact on construction safety risks in The process of prefabricated housing construction followed by lifting operations risks And the installing risks of PC components. According to the results,the control measures of construction security risk management for prefabricated residential buildings have been proposed. Meanwhile,Information Technology System of safety risks as a result of its advantages of powerful data support,visualization,and the capability of being simulated,ect.Finally,in order to examine the applicability of system the dynamic model established in this paper,a practical project was used to put the model into practice The results prove that it has good applicability,and which will provide a certain valuable reference to construction security risk management for prefabricated housing.