Analyzation And Estimation Of Train Dwell Time Based On Surveyed Data

According to the trains’practical dwell time in the investigated stations, we found that there is a large gap between practical dwell time and scheduled dwell time. Reasons lead to this situation may be in two aspects:On the one hand, the scheduled dwell time is not too reasonable to satisfy the trains’practical dwell time, in this situation, we should put forward to feasible method to determine reasonable scheduled dwell time aiming at possible problems in present scheduled dwell time. On the other hand, the practical dwell time of the train is deviating from the scheduled dwell time due to suffering various random factors when train is running in the route, under this circumstance, we need to find out the trains’practical dwell time and the correlation between the influencing factors and trains’practical dwell time in order to forecast trains’practical dwell time accurately, and thus, obtaining the estimation model of trains’ practical dwell time. Therefore, this article will start on research based on above two aspects.In determining the scheduled dwell time, this article takes the down direction of Beijing Subway Line 4 as an example. According to the practical dwell time of these stations, we analyzed the distinction of trains’practical dwell time between different kinds of stations in peak and off-peak period. And also, we analyzed the distinction between the practical dwell time and the scheduled dwell time in these stations. It is as expected that there is large gap between practical dwell time and the scheduled dwell time in most of the stations, and also there is several stations in which trains’practical dwell time is different in peak and off-peak period. In view of this situation, we proposed a method of determining trains’scheduled dwell time on the basis of different period.In the estimation model of trains’ practical dwell time, in this thesis, we systematically analyze the possible static and dynamic factors to trains’ practical dwell time firstly. The static factors include different stations, different kinds of train, passengers, different drivers and so on. The dynamic factors include trains’headway, the running time of previous train in the next section, the practical dwell time of last train in next station, the running error of the target train, the practical dwell time of the target train in related station, the practical dwell time of continuous train in target station. And then, according to the practical dwell time of these stations, analyze the correlation between above influencing factors and the practical dwell time. Finally, we establish the estimation model of practical dwell time with these variables which include the practical dwell time of previous train in target station, the practical dwell time of second previous train in target station, the practical dwell time of the train in related station, the running time error of the train in previous section and the running time of previous train in the next section. According to the calculating results of the model, it fits for 75.5 percent of the investigated practical dwell time, and the mean absolute error is 4 second, on this basis, we can say that the dwell time estimation model of this article could be applied into practice very well. This thesis includes 57figures,29 tables and 42 references.