Influence Of New Line’s Opening On Route Choice

With the economic development, process of urbanization, acceleration of mobilization and growing population, the number of vehicle increased a lot, which brought many problems, such as traffic congestion and environmental pollution. To relieve the pressure of the urban traffic, China started developing urban rail transit, so Chinese urban rail enters high-speed period with the increased number of new line. As an important part of urban public transit, urban rail supports many routes under cooperation with other traffic modes. New line’s opening may change the traffic network and break the balance of sharing rate. As a result, new line’s opening has a great influence on route choice. On the basis of experience and research results at home and abroad, this paper build route choice model based on minimum generalized cost and the effects of the opening of new rail transit lines on route choice are quantitatively analyzed.Firstly, through analyzing real data in Beijing about new line’s opening, a comparison of traffic modes is made and found that new line’s opening has most influence on sharing rate of bus, so new line and bus form competition. Based on analysis of trip, combinations of new route and old route in diverse traffic mode are put forward.Secondly, from three aspects of economic cost, time cost and transfer cost, a generalized cost model is proposed. Furthermore, on the basis of Disaggregate Model theory, generalized cost based Binary Logit model is proposed.Finally, parameters are computed with investigation questionnaire and the numerical example proves that the model is feasibility to calculate sharing rate. By analyzing the calculation results, the thesis has analyzed effects of opening a new rail line on route choice and found that the sharing rate of new line increases along with the growth of length. The statistic shows that the penalty of second transfer of bus lines is bigger than penalty of first transfer of rail lines. Moreover, the penalty of first transfer of rail lines is less than penalty of twice transfers between bus line and rail line. The case study shows that 79.64% of passengers from old route shift to new route. When transfer time changes from -20% to 20%, the sharing rate reduces from 87.86% to 67.89%.