Studies On Robust Orderly Power Utilization Planning

With the development of power grid construction, power balance problem has been basically solved, but the short-term contradiction between electricity supply and demand will still exist. The core issue of power system operation is the balance between electricity supply and demand. Demand side resources participate in orderly power utilization planning and play an important role in power balance and security operation of power system. For current existing problems in orderly power utilization planning, this paper focuses on customer baseline load (CBL) methods analysis, error estimation of CBL methods and the design of robust orderly power utilization planning. The main work of this paper is as follows:Firstly, CBL methods implemented in American major electricity markets are selected, and from the selection of historical data window, the calculation of adjustment factors and other aspects, these methods are discussed in detail. Based on the simulation results, the calculation accuracy and the influence factors of calculation error of each method are analyzed. Then, the advantages and disadvantages of each method are summarized and the improvement directions are presented from the aspects of accuracy, integrity, simplicity and alignment.Secondly, to reveal the relevance between CBL and the influence brought by the periodic trend and random factors of the load, an analysis is done in this paper. Discrete Fourier transform (DFT) is used to decompose the historical load into different periodic components. By defining error evaluation indicators, the relationship between calculation errors of each CBL method and periodic components is analyzed, and then the error range of each method is determined. The determination of error limit gives valuable information for CBL calculation and provides a fair reference for the determination of compensation and punishment in orderly power utilization planning.Finally, due to the fact that the design of orderly power utilization planning is influenced by CBL model error and consumers’ response uncertainties, the peak averting schedule of orderly power utilization planning based on mechanism design is proposed. Taking social welfare maximization as the objective, based on economic mechanism design theory, customer true baseline load is taken as type parameter, customer balance function and balance information are constructed. By constantly adjusting the balance information and customer’s independent decision, the optimal peak averting schedule can be realized. Taking customer true baseline load as type parameter can indirectly lead consumers to reveal their true baseline load information, and then the influence of CBL model error and demand response uncertainty can be eliminated. The improvement of consumer’s adjusting strategy can guarantee the robustness of peak averting planning.In conclusion, with the development of power industry, large-scale renewable energies integrate into power system, the proportion of electricity supply from outside regions increases continually. These phenomena will increase the probability of short-term shortage of power supply. Orderly power utilization planning can effectively balance electricity supply and demand; it plays an important role in power security operation. This study will provide new ideas and methods for orderly power utilization planning, it can not only solve power shortage problem, but also can improve social welfare.