Study On The Optimization Of The Operation Scheme Based On The Passenger Travel Demand Of Metro Area

Metro project, is one of the largest urban infrastructure construction, which is a wide range, comprehensive system engineering. The construction is a vital project, which plays a key role on the mode of urban city development and people’s production and life. Therefore, doing a good investigation job in the radiation range of the subway passenger demand survey and statistics, and then determining the scope of radiation of the subway, carrying on the forecast of passenger flow and driving scheme of layout optimization and create basic conditions, as well as the metro project according to the planning and giving full play to the overall efficiency of the subway is currently exploring major problems to solve.First, through investigation, the influence of people who choose to travel mode, reason and the degree of its influence are analyzed. Hierarchical structure model establishes on the various factors of evaluation index. Based on travel convenience of analysis method, the time value of the analogy and the distance decay function prediction of subway radiation are described in this paper. Through a line which will be built and opened the line, the railway station within the scope of the passenger flow survey and establish quantitative indicators and analysis of the causes of the differences in the radiation radius are to be carried out. In addition, the integration of the research results of the existing operation of the passenger flow analysis, based on the extracted from the corresponding data analysis indicators and analysis of subway radiation range is how to distance and reduce with the travel.Secondly, different regions of each site radiation radius were comparative study, analyzing the difference for subway travel demand generation mechanism of detailed analysis, using double logit model for subway travel passenger flow forecast; Survey based, according to the subway radiation scope, the introduction of passenger travel demand forecasting model of passenger flow prediction is built.Finally, according to the influence factors of passenger travel demand, traffic condition, transport resources perspective analysis of the train routing scheme, the framework for the preparation of the train routing plans are constructed. According to the results of passenger flow and OD prediction equipped with the capacity and traffic volume is to provide compilation basis for subsequent transport plan.Besides, the analysis of the prediction result of poor reliability may exist, and the confidence level and the confidence interval of the concept by data evaluation procedures are to be introduced. Possible data input error and predictive model distortion coefficients are evaluated in order to amend the original forecast results and improve the prediction results reliability. Certain reference provide for subway planning and operation.