Research On Passenger Flow Forecast Method Of City Tourism Railway

With the rapid development of tourism in recent years,more and more attention has been paid to the integrated development of tourism and transportation.Suburban tourism railway is a new tourism transportation mode under the background of tourism and transportation integration.It provides convenient and comfortable transportation services for tourists traveling among passenger distributing centers,such as suburban areas,tourist attractions,traffic hubs and others in the city.The planning and construction of suburban tourism railway should be based on the development level of the future passenger flow.Therefore,it is very important to carry out the passenger flow forecasting of suburban tourism railway scientifically and reasonably according to the characteristics of the tourism travel in the city.This paper mainly constructs a passenger flow forecasting method system for suburban tourism railway,studies the key forecasting methods of the distribution of suburban tourism passenger flow distribution and suburban tourism transportation mode selection,and then makes an empirical analysis combined with the actual suburban tourism railway project.Firstly,the paper constructs the content framework and method system of passenger flow prediction of tourism railway in the city.After analysing the railway technical characteristics,tourists’ travel characteristics and influencing factors of the railway passenger flow,this study defines main measures and proposes the main prediction contents of suburban tourism railway of the passenger flow prediction,including its trip generation,trip distribution,mode selection,line and network passenger flow measures,and constructs the corresponding forecasting method system.Secondly,the paper studies the forecasting method of tourists’ travel distribution.According to the characteristics of tourists’ travels,the paper describes the travel distribution of tourists by using the method of trip chain,which covers the travel times,travel sequence,travel distance and other measures of tourists,reflecting the travel mode of tourist flow properly.Then,the paper constructs the travel distribution model of tourist flow based on trip chain by using the maximum entropy principle,and gives the model solving algorithm.Taking the current travel distribution data of suburban tourism railway of Huangshan as an example,the model output can reflect the characteristics of tourists’ actual travel distribution well,and verify the applicability and effectiveness of the model.Then,the paper studies the forecasting method of tourists’ travel mode choice.Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of the choice of tourist travel mode,considering the personal attributes,the travel and the traffic mode attributes of tourists,the data of tourists’travel choice behavior are obtained through the Revealed Preference(RP)survey and the Stated Preference(SP)survey.The model of travel mode choice based on the integration of RP/SP data is established by using the Stochastic Utility Theory,and the effectiveness of the model is verified as well.Finally,the paper takes the passenger flow forecast of Huangshan suburban tourism railway line T1 as an example to carry out the empirical research.It is according to the project requirements that the passenger flow prediction method system and techical route of the line are determined.Based on the data of tourist flow volume and passenger transport hub volume in the past years,the trip generation in the future years is predicted,and the reliability of the model is tested;the travel distribution and tourism transportation modes are predicted by using the travel distribution prediction method and travel transportation mode choice prediction method is established in this paper;the passenger flow assignment method of rail transition is used to predict the passenger flow measures of suburban tourism railway and the sensitivity of passenger flow is analyzed at the same time.The empirical research shows the practicability of the method of passenger flow prediction of suburban tourism railway established in this paper,providingthe guidance for the planning and construction of suburban tourism railway.