The Analysis On Inflow Runoff Forecast Error And The Application In Reservoirs Short-term Generation Scheduling

In this paper, The prediction error distribution law of inflow runoff was analyzed with suitable distribution form, and on the basis of that, the risk assessment of short-term power generation scheduling of hydropower station reservoirs is carried out, which has important theoretical significance and practical application value for improving economic benefits of hydropower station reservoirs short-term generation scheduling.Firstly, this is paper combined Bayes, Maximum entropy and Markov Chain Monte Carlo three methods in order to establish a new method called Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayes Maximum Entropy (MBME). Secondly, the period division and distribution computation of inflow runoff prediction error serials were finished based on MBME. Then this paper established a hydropower station reservoirs short-term generation scheduling risk estimation model with inflow runoff forecast error. The model and method were applied to "Jinguan power pack"three reservoir short-term generation scheduling. Considering the influence of the various period inflow runoff serial on its distribution law, The distribution function of runoff forecasting errors in different periods of different runoff series is obtained. After that, this paper analyzed prior distribution, theoretical normal distribution and the error sample histogram to verify the rationality and feasibility of the model. Finally, considering the influence of runoff forecast error on short term generation scheduling of hydropower station reservoirs, The risk rate method and opportunity loss method were used to establish a risk assessment model for short-term power generation scheduling of hydropower station reservoirs considering reservoir prediction error. Based on an example, the risk of short-term power generation scheduling of hydropower station reservoirs considering reservoir prediction error is estimated and quantified, which provides an important theoretical basis and decision basis for the reservoir operation Department.