Short-term Generation Scheduling And Fuzzy Risk Analysis Of Hydropower Station Considering Runoff Forecasting Errors

With the improvement of hydrological forecasting technology,more and more hydrological forecasting information has been used for reservoir scheduling decision-making to effectively improve the economic benefits of hydropower energy systems.However,due to the inevitability of forecast error,the reservoir scheduling decision based on hydrological forecast information will also have greater uncertainty.Therefore,how to analyze and deal with the impact of uncertainty of forecast error on the decision-making of reservoir operation is a key scientific issue that needs to be studied and solved urgently.In addition,the hydrological forecasting model is affected by many main and objective factors,and its forecast error has a large degree of fuzzy uncertainty along with random uncertainties.For this reason,the fuzzy distribution rule of runoff forecast error is studied,and on this basis,the fuzzy risk of near-boundary operation of short-term generation dispatch of hydropower system is quantified.It can provide a new decision support method for the short-term power generation optimal dispatch of hydropower system,which has important theoretical significance and practical application value.In view of this,this paper first studies the advantages and disadvantages of various common membership function construction methods in the process of establishing fuzzy sets.Based on this,a fuzzy distribution method based on closeness optimality criterion is proposed,which forms a relatively perfect fuzzy set construction method based on closeness optimality criterion.Secondly,using the proposed fuzzy distribution method based on the closeness optimality criterion,the fuzzy distribution law of runoff forecasting error of the reservoir was studied,and the quantitative model of runoff forecasting error in fuzzy environment was established.Taking the Jinxi hydropower station on the lower reaches of the Yalong River as an example,the optimal membership function of the fuzzy set of forecasting errors of inflow runoff at different flow levels is determined.Finally,based on the two typical scenarios of near-high water level boundary operation and near-low water level boundary operation,a fuzzy risk analysis model for short-term power generation dispatch near-border operation of hydropower stations was established based on the credibility theory.And proposed an efficient model solving method based on multi-level parallel computing model.In this way,the three-dimensional fuzzy risk space of the short-term power generation dispatch of hydropower stations under different near boundary conditions is obtained.The coupling and transformation of runoff forecasting errors and power generation dispatching risks are realized,which can provide theoretical guidance and decision support for the actual dispatching of hydropower systems.