| Since the 21 st century, with the globalization of the economy and environment, water resources have become one of the important factors that constraint sustainable development in certain regions. Aspects of coordinated development of the global environmental changes and economics, researchers take it as focus, in particular at the inland river basin area. In short, the problems of water shortage get worse because of poor water quality of the inland river basin, high evaporation-precipitation ratio, uneven water distribution, and serious soil erosion, coupled with population boom, economic growth and climate deteriorated in recent years.This paper chose the Ebinur Lake area in Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture as the study area. There are a lot problems, as mentioned above, in the existing arid area. Based on full investigation of Ebinur Lake area water resources and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics, this study focuses on runoff, precipitation, spatial and temporal distribution of water resources as well as their bearing capacity. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) Having analyzed current runoff situation of Ebinur Lake area main river Bortala River and Jinghe, we found that the multi-year average runoff in Jinghe is bigger than it in Bortala River; the fluctuation range of both river is not very big. It carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis of Bortala River and Jinghe runoff data by method of R/S and the Mann Kendall respectively. Also the runoff change of both rivers in the future can be predicted. The conclusion is: Hurst index of Bortala River is H1=0.20, 0<H1<0.5, UFk>0, illustrating the Bortala River runoff will on the decline. Jinghe’s Hurst index is H2=0.26, 0<H2<0.5, UFk>0, showing that the future trend of Jinghe’s runoff is also declining.(2) This study took yearly and monthly average data of precipitation in 1964 to 2015 to analyze surface water resources spatial distribution. According to match with the time distribution of surface water, I selected 4-year monthly average data and did spatial interpolation of available site data and drew corresponding precipitation isoline map. During 1964-2015, the minimum value of precipitation distribution is 64 mm, the maximum is 309.3mm. I found that the spatial variation of precipitation in the study area is very large, which is related to the special topography and geomorphology of the study area. In the study area, the piecewise or overall precipitation isoline graph showed that the precipitation distributions have common characteristic which is that the amount of precipitation gradually declining from west to east as followed by Hot Springs County, Bole City, Jinghe county. Around the Ebinur Lake, these counties have been the least precipitation area. The overall distribution of the precipitation is declining in turn of mountainous area, plain and basin.(3) With totally 22 statistical data sets such as social economics, meteorology, remote sensing data in Bozhou area, the paper extracted five principal components by principal component analysis, and at the same time merged principal components. After carrying on the objective evaluation with entropy method, three major systems influencing water resources bearing capacity in Bozhou area were concluded, namely system of water resources(A1), ecological environment system(A2), social and economic system(A3). In these three systems, the entropy weight of social economic system(A3) is 0.4809, topped the list.; water resources system(A1) is 0.3187, ranked second; ecological environment system(A2) is 0.2004, ranked third. All these results show that in Bozhou area local socio-economic status is the main factor affecting the water resource bearing capacity. According to the comprehensive evaluation model, composite scores of water resources bearing capacity show that water resources bearing capacity is declining in general. This is due to the development of social economy and the increase of population, increases in the development and utilization of water resources, leading to the deterioration of local water resources, so that the bearing capacity of water resources becomes less. To improve the regional water resources bearing capacity and increase its development potential, the relevant departments should reasonably allocate water resources and improve the efficiency of utilization of water resources while ensure rapid economic development and improve the quality of the ecological environment, so as to achieve basic coordination of both social and economic development scale and water resources bearing capacity.This paper aims to optimize the allocation of water resources in arid areas, rationally use water resources, coordinate the contradiction among social economic system, ecological environment system and water resources system in Ebinur Lake area. It also provide a useful reference for the realization of sustainable development of water resources in the Ebinur Lake area. |
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