Forecasting Of Electric Vehicles’ Charging Load And Study On Coordinated Planning Of Charging And Battery Swap Stations

Car, known as “the machine changing the world”, made great contribution to the development of modern society, now reaching deep into the various fields of people’s life. Auto industry, with its large consumption, wide side employment, high correlation and long industry chain, has become an important pillar industry in many countries, playing an important role in social development and national economy. After hundreds of years of development, traditional fuel cars gradually achieved a comprehensive application of modern high-tech and mechanical-electrical integration. Its various performances have reached a high level. But when the car brings benefit to mankind, it also has a lot of disadvantages, whose development is faced with many grave challenges.Facing environmental problems caused by the traditional automobile emission and energy problems caused by the excessive consumption of petroleum resources, the electric vehicles, with its good energy saving, environmental protection and easy control characteristics, is now becoming the trend of international automobile development and the key direction of the concern.At first, the influence on electric vehicles’ charging load of factors, such as electric vehicles market size, type, charging characteristics and user behavior, were analyzed. Then, based on the foreign statistical data, the probability distribution of electric vehicles start charging time and daily driving distance were calculated and simulated. Assuming the charging frequency reasonably, the electric vehicles charging load forecasting model was established. Taking Shanghai as an example, the influence of working days, weekends and unified price, time-of-use electricity price on the electric vehicles charging load were compared.Considering the important influence of battery swap service on the electric vehicles promotion and application, battery swap service was treated as a multi-stage decision process, which was researched using dynamic programming theory. On the basis of analyzing the cost composition and constraint conditions of battery swap service, the scheduling planning model of electric vehicles’ battery swap service was established, taking the minimum total cost as objective function. Combining with the specific example, the influence of the basic cost of adding battery, after cost of adding battery, and battery storage cost on battery swap service was discussed.The allocation plan of electric vehicles’ charging and battery swap stations is of important significance, in favor of speeding up the popularization of electric vehicles. The service characteristics, suitable occasions, supply speed, construction cost, operation cost, advantages and disadvantages of charging pile, charging station and swap station were compared, putting foreword the network structure planning of “large concentrated charging stations-battery swap stations-charging piles”. Then the decision behavior of large concentrated charging stations agent, battery swap stations agent and user agent, as well as the influence of environmental elements were analyzed with multi-agent theory, establishing charging and battery swap stations’ coordinated planning model based on the multi-agent theory. The overall charging demand, regional battery swap demand, land cost, battery transportation cost and users’ energy consumption of swapping battery were considered in the model. At last, taking an area in the south of our country as an example, the influence of each agent on the charging and battery swap stations’ coordinated planning was compared.The research on electric vehicles’ charging load forecasting, scheduling planning of electric vehicles’ battery swap service and charging and battery swap stations’ coordinated planning in this paper can offer power system decision-making reference and basis to face the influence of electric vehicles’ rapid development.